Whiplash for the Concert Business as the Delta Variant Rages On

The concert industry had hoped that this summer would mark its high-decibel rebound after being shut down for more than a year by the pandemic.

It started promisingly, with restrictions being eased and fans snapping up tickets, but as the spread of the highly contagious Delta variant has accelerated in recent weeks, an ominous cancellation blotter has begun to build up.

Foo Fighters and Fall Out Boy have missed high-profile shows. Stevie Nicks and Limp Bizkit have scuttled tours. The New Orleans Jazz & Heritage Festival, planned for October, was canceled amid high infection rates in Louisiana.

The pileup of bad news, along with fearful chatter among artists and touring workers on industry back channels, has led to what many in the business describe as a confusing and even chaotic situation over whether — and how — to proceed.

For those moving forward, a loose consensus has taken shape that fans must provide proof of vaccination, or at least a negative test. But anecdotal reports suggest that the rigor of vaccine checks can be lacking, and the question of who bears responsibility for setting and enforcing those rules — especially when governments in major markets like Texas and Florida oppose such mandates — remains a matter of debate.

Last week, Jason Isbell, an alt-country singer-songwriter with decades of critical admiration, announced that attendees of his current tour must show proof of vaccination or a negative test.

“I need to take certain steps to try to ensure the safety of people attending, if at all possible,” Isbell said in a phone interview. “Also, I don’t think our business will be able to function unless we start putting those restrictions in place.”

Three shows in Austin, Texas, went just fine, Isbell said. “It was a different vibe, because everybody felt safer.”

But then Isbell canceled a date at the Cynthia Woods Mitchell Pavilion, an amphitheater outside Houston, because, he said, the venue would not “comply” with his rule.

The aftermath of Isbell’s decision gave a taste of the political fallout and behind-the-scenes finger-pointing that many artists are eager to avoid. On Twitter, one user who called himself a longtime fan of Isbell’s urged him, “DO NOT ALIENATE HALF YOUR FAN BASE over politics and emotions,” and warned, “Remember the Dixie Chicks.”

In an interview, Jerry MacDonald, the chief executive of the pavilion, said that Isbell’s request simply came too late for the venue to implement it.

“We were fully willing to address this and comply,” MacDonald said. “It was an unreasonable request on his part to think we could do this in two days.” Isbell and his manager both said they had made their request more than a week ahead of time.

Live Nation and AEG Presents, the two global companies that dominate the business, have each announced that, by October, most venues and festivals they control in the United States will require vaccinations or negative tests for entry. Those decisions were applauded throughout the industry, but there are gray areas.

Artists that have touring deals with those companies pass through plenty of venues that are out of their control. (Live Nation set “best practices” for artists to request vaccination mandates at third-party spaces.)

In the case of AEG Presents’ policy, it applies to festivals like Coachella and clubs like Brooklyn Steel in New York — but not to larger venues like the Staples Center in Los Angeles, an arena owned by AEG Presents’ parent company, AEG, which controls sports, entertainment and real estate assets.

“Just a few weeks ago, we were optimistic about where our business, and country, were heading,” Jay Marciano, the chairman of AEG Presents, said in a statement. “The Delta variant, combined with vaccine hesitancy, is pushing us in the wrong direction again.”

Concert promoters, like other arts executives, are hoping that velvet ropes of vaccination requirements around cultural events can serve as an incentive for fans to get the shot. In a survey of attendees at Lollapalooza, which required proof of vaccination or a negative test, 12 percent said the festival was the motivation for them getting vaccinated, with many under age 30.

“Vaccines are going to be your ticket back to shows,” said Michael Rapino, the chief executive of Live Nation.

Lollapalooza, which drew around 400,000 people over four days in Chicago, has been seen as a test case for large-scale public events, and the city’s mayor, Lori Lightfoot, faced criticism for letting the festival go on at full capacity. But according to data released by the city on Thursday, infection rates were very low — four in 10,000 vaccinated people, and 16 in 10,000 unvaccinated ones, reported testing positive in the two weeks since the festival opened.

To reduce their risk on the road, artists have begun to tighten the circles around them. Dead & Company, which features surviving members of the Grateful Dead, announced this week that it would require fans to be vaccinated or show negative tests for its new tour, which opens on Monday. But the band also circulated a “touring protocols” document among its team saying that no guests — not even family members, other than band members’ spouses — are allowed in a “tour bubble” surrounding the band.

“This is no guest, no pass tour. No exceptions,” says the six-page document, which The New York Times confirmed is authentic.

For many artists, deciding whether to proceed can involve a hard calculation of the thin financial margins of a tour, and the probability that someone in their circle may contract the virus. Although touring is often an artist’s largest source of income, production costs — renting equipment and trucks, hiring a crew — can be hefty, and often eat up much of an artist’s advance payment from a promoter.

“For a 40-date tour, five concerts may represent the entire profit margin of the tour,” said Sam Hunt of the Wasserman Music agency. “So if an artist has to cancel five of those shows they would at best break even, and if they miss six they will lose money. Some artists may be more willing than others to bear those risks.”

For now, much of the business is barreling forth as planned, placing its hopes on vaccination and on the pent-up demand of fans. Live Nation said that in June, its United States concert division put tickets to more shows on sale than in any other month in its history.

Omar Al-joulani, the company’s vice president for touring, said that Live Nation still expects a robust return to touring in 2022, and that the cancellations so far were not cause for concern. “There are always going to be isolated cases of cancellations,” he said, “but I’m not seeing any of that at scale.”

Still, Al-joulani added, the company is ready to adjust plans as necessary.

“What we’ve learned over the last year,” he said, “is to be really flexible.”